Хотя "жизнь-то налаживается", в обществе чрезвычайно распространены мрачные представления о судьбе человечества.
Рецензия (англ.) - на книгу The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves, Matt Ridley приводит аргументы в пользу сдержанного оптимизма относительно нашего настоящего и будущего.
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С 1800 г. население увеличилось в шесть раз - с 1 миллиарда до 6-и. при этом продолжительность жизни более чем удвоилась, а средний реальный доход увеличился в девять раз. За последние 50 лет продолжительность жизни увеличилась на треть.
В Греции и Риме классического периода средняя продолжительность жизни была 28 лет. В средневековой Британии - 30. А в начале 20 века - 30-45. В настоящее время ср. продолжительность жизни в Японии - 82.6, в Исландии - 81.8.
При этом пессимизм настолько распространен, что даже отложенный визит старухи с косой является поводом для пессимистических прогнозов. Делается необоснованный вывод, что мир будет переполнен инвалидами. На самом деле процент таких людей для группы старше 65 лет уменьшился с 26.2 до 19.7 процента между 1982 и 1999 г.
Мы богаче, чем когда бы то ни было. И хотя обилие вещей сравнивают с болезнью, они делают нашу жизнь более интересной. Даже бедные люди извлекают пользу из ситуации. Среди бедных жителей США 99% имеют водопровод, электричество и холодильник. 95% - телевизор, 71% - автомобиль, 70% - кондиционеры. К вещам иногда относятся с презрением, но мы недооцениваем, насколько они улучшили нашу жизнь.
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Since 1800, Ridley points out, the world population of human beings has risen sixfold—from 1 billion to over 6 billion—yet in the same period, average life expectancy has more than doubled and average real income has risen ninefold. In just the past 50 years, the average human “earned nearly three times as much money (corrected for inflation), ate one-third more calories of food, buried one-third as many of her children, and could expect to live one-third longer.”
Life expectancy—the surest measure that we are doing something right—has risen exponentially over the past 200 years. It was static for millennia. In classical Greece and Rome, average life expectancy was 28. In pre-Columbian North America, it was 25 to 30. In medieval Britain, it was 30. In the early 20th century, the global average life expectancy was 30 to 45. In the 1920s, Ridley points out, demographers confidently predicted that average life expectancy could never exceed 65 “without intervention of radical innovations or fantastic evolutionary change in our physiological make-up.” To those demographers, the thought of millions or even billions of human beings, worker and wealthy man alike, living into their 70s and 80s was unthinkable. But it has happened—and then some. Today, life expectancy in Japan is 82.6. In Iceland, it is 81.8. In Spain, it is 80.9, in Britain, it is 79.4, and in the U.S., it is 78.2.
Yet such is the depth of pessimism today that even mankind’s successful delaying of the Grim Reaper’s visit is seen as a Bad Thing. It has led to an “aging crisis,” we are told, or an “aging timebomb,” whereby Western societies will soon be packed with sick, feeble old people who drain social and economic resources. This is a mean-spirited and inaccurate generalization, says Ridley. For example, one American study found that disability rates in people over 65 fell from 26.2 percent to 19.7 percent between 1982 and 1999. The risk of cancer, heart disease, and respiratory disease still increases with age, but these illnesses now occur later in life—on average ten years later than they did in the 1950s—and they are not as necessarily fatal as they once were.
We are wealthier than ever before, too. “Stuff” might be a dirty word these days. Oprah Winfrey, billionaire, even talks about the disease of “stuff-itis.” But this stuff has made our lives more pleasant and fun. Even the poor have benefited. In 1958, when J.K. Galbraith wrote about “the affluent society,” he was mainly talking about the American middle classes with their cars, washing machines, maybe even TVs. Today, Ridley points out, among Americans officially designated as “poor,” 99 percent have electricity, running water, and a fridge; 95 percent have a television; 71 percent have a car; and 70 percent have air conditioning. Some people—usually well-off commentators, people like Oprah—scoff at the little guy’s desire for more and more stuff. Yet we underestimate how these things have improved human life. How much backbreaking female drudgery was wiped out by the invention of the washing machine? How many man-hours have been saved by the availability of cars for shopping, school-drops, and visiting relatives? How much healthier is our food, and longer-lasting, now that virtually everyone in the Western world has a refrigerator?
Тема: Рациональный оптимизм (Прочитано 1752 раз)
